The road to 2024 lok sabha election is not a piece of cake for the BJP

The month of March  is going on, the spring season has started, along with this the discussions regarding the 2024 Lok sabha elections are intense in the political corridors, from  chaupals of the villages and the cities to the schools-universities, offices-secretariats.  Till now the biggest issue of debate remains, what will happen in 2024 loksabha elections?  But it is clear that there are only two issues in these discussions, whether the BJP-led NDA coalition government will return or a new government will come in appearance. In the above light, further in this article, an attempt has been made to understand in detail, how the return of the present government is almost impossible or at least the war of 2024 loksabha is not easy for the BJP.  Be aware that next year 2024 Loksabha elections schedule are to be announced on this very day, it means that there is still about a year or a little more time left for the elections and BJP is facing challenges from all sides.  If we talk about the National Democratic Alliance (NDA), then the ship called NDA is no longer visible as before because almost all major constituents from TDP to PDP, from Punjab's Akali Dal to JDU and Shiv Sena have parted ways, due to this the road has become more difficult for BJP. Look on these facts if we talk roughly about 135 seats in three states like UP, Bihar and Jharkhand, then after JDU's separation from NDA and re-emergence of old Grand Alliance (Mahagathbandhan) in Bihar, BJP in Bihar has reached the position of being clean bowled. In Jharkhand, JMM, Congress, RJD and now even JDU together can put BJP in a disadvantageous position. As far as Uttar Pradesh is concerned, the BJP will have a direct fight with the Samajwadi Party-led alliance on 80 seats in UP, where if the vote of last year's assembly elections is transferred to the SP alliance, even then BJP may have to lose more than half of the seats. If this happens only in these three states, which is almost possible, then BJP will fail to form the government, because BJP has a huge number of 302 seats, more than 90 seats, out of these 135 seats,  In which even if 40 is reduced, BJP will not be able to touch the majority mark of 273.  Now let's go to West Bengal, after the defeat in the legislative assembly elections, the BJP in Bengal is almost finished, due to which it does not seem to be in a position to repeat its old performance in front of TMC.  There is a terrible anti-BJP wave in Karnataka, the result of which can be seen in the Karnataka assembly elections even before the Lok Sabha elections.  Except for Telangana, the position of BJP in the south is not good at present, that too has been weakened by the activism of TRS (new name BRS).  The victory of the Shiv Sena (Uddhav) led Maha Vikas Aghadi in all the by-elections held after the breakup of the Shiv Sena in Maharashtra has proved that the Marathi man is waiting to teach a lesson to the BJP in Maharashtra.  Apart from UP, Bihar and Jharkhand, other Hindi-speaking states, which some scholars also call the Cow Belt, the impact of the Bharat Jodo Yatra of the Congress is on a large scale, which makes it clear that the BJP will remain at huge loss there as compared to 2019.

If we look at the recent political events, Rahul Gandhi's historic Bharat Jodo Yatra has come to an end.  Now if we look at the impact of the yatra, then the yatra has infused enthusiasm among the Congress workers, as well as helped Rahul Gandhi to understand some ground issues, the impact can be seen in Mr. Gandhi's subsequent activities and statements. If the party makes the travel experiences a part of its future election strategies, it can be able to give a direct fight to the BJP in more than 200 seats.  It may be noted that the 85th session of the Congress was held on February 24-26 regarding this.  If we talk about Bihar, in the party Congress of CPIML and Grand Alliance rally (Mahagathbandhan)  on February 25 in Purnia, Nitish Kumar has reiterated his commitment to limit BJP to 100 seats.  KCR is continuously active from Bihar to Delhi as well as in his home state, on March 1 in Chennai also on the birthday of Tamil Nadu Chief Minister MK Stalin, the opposition showed unity and committed to defeating Modi, attacking the federal structure and saving the country from Hindutva-fascism. Talking about the largest state UP, SP chief Akhilesh Yadav is going to hold a two-day meeting of the party's national executive in Kolkata on March 17-19 after touring various districts and visiting Telangana, Tamil Nadu and Gujarat. Overall, the opposition parties are continuously seen fighting to defeat the BJP at their own level as well as at the national level.  Along with this, Adani's position in the recent Hindenburg report, the government's rejection of JPC's demand for a fair investigation by the joint opposition, the banning of the BBC documentary on the Gujarat riots, and now the Lalu family and other opposition parties.  BJP's anger can be gauged from the raids of ED, Income Tax and CBI on the opposition leaders.  Along with this, the common man's life has become difficult due to severe unemployment and extreme inflation.  With all the election promises made by the BJP proving to be jumlas, one can clearly see the huge anti-incumbency among the public against the government. All these incidents indicating towards that, it will be not simple for the BJP to return in power again in 2024 lok sabha election.

Amit Kumar Mandal and Krishan Kumar

(The author Shri Mandal and Shri Kumar are students of CPS, JNU, the views expressed are joint and personal)